DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/26 11:02
Soybeans Higher at Midday; Wheat Lower; Corn Mixed
Corn futures are narrowly mixed at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are 17
to 18 cents higher; wheat futures are 22 to 27 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 360 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 15 points higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are
firmer with crude up 2.10. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading.
Precious metals are mixed with gold down 21.00.
Corn futures are narrowly mixed with trade caught between soybean strength
and wheat weakness, while spread action remains flat after reversing Tuesday.
Ethanol margins continue to deteriorate with stocks at the highest levels since
last May and only exceeded by spring 2020 levels. Another build of 884,000
barrels was reported with production down 18,000 barrels. Trade will continue
to look for further sales confirmation on the daily wire; there were no reports
Wednesday. Basis should remain rangebound to slightly weaker in the short term
with weather likely to slow short-term movement in some areas. Trade will
continue watching South American weather as we head toward second-crop planting
and development. On the March contract we have support at the 20-day moving
average of $6.04 then the fresh high at 6.31 as resistance, which we scored
Soybean futures are 17 to 18 cents higher at midday with trade bouncing off
earlier dime-lower trade to continue to hold above $14.00 nearby. Spread action
is flat with support from meal and oil with little short-term change to the
South American forecast. Meal is $6.00 to $7.00 higher and oil is 65 to 75
points higher. Basis remains mostly flat in the short term. Crush margins
remain solid with future renewable diesel demand likely to keep good support
under oil going forward; meal has struggled with the $400 level in recent days.
Early harvest is underway in South America, likely to further crimp U.S. export
competitiveness in February. No fresh sales showed up on the daily wire, with
better demand likely needed to sustain fresh buying with the current forecast.
On the March soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high of $14.29 1/2,
which we are just below at midday, with trade back above the 20-day moving
average at $13.85 as support.
Wheat futures are 23 to 29 cents lower at midday with trade reversing
overnight with snow in the western Plains, and little fresh news on the
Russia/Ukraine front overnight. The dollar remains squarely rangebound in the
short term as well,v but is pressing back towards the upper end a bit. Plains
weather looks a little wetter in the short term with the crop likely to stay
dormant and some areas having better snow cover now. Spring wheat is flat
versus Chicago, keeping the premium at $1.31 on the March, with KC at a 21-cent
premium in firmer action. KC March chart support is the 20-day moving average
at $7.92, which we moved above, with resistance the Upper Bollinger Band at
$8.38, which we have pulled back from after opening trade near overnight.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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